Overall ObjectivesThe objective of WP 9 is to provide plausible future climate scenarios for major European regions in detail, and for the whole world, in order to assess the food safety risks related to climate change. Interaction and input is foreseen with other WPs to define the adaption scenarios on horticultural safety management systems (HSMS) (WP3), microbiological risk assessment (WP6), pesticide residues risk assessment (WP7) and mycotoxin risk assessment in the fresh produce supply chain (WP8).
StrategyIncreasing evidence of the impact of climate change on the transmission of food and waterborne diseases, on behavior of toxigenic moulds and production of mycotoxins, on the development rate of various types of plant pests, pesticide use and remaining residues, is becoming available.
The food safety challenges raised by climate-related changes highlight the need for timely scientific advice to guide risk management decisions. In Veg-i-Trade, climate change is exemplified by different EU regions corresponding with different climatic conditions: Northern Europe (Norway), middle Europe (Belgium) and Southern Europe (Spain and the Balkan region - represented by Serbia). These different climatic conditions mean that the fresh produce production processes between these countries differ on several points. On a world-wide scale, different production systems due to variable climatic conditions are exemplified by collaborating ICPC countries from South-America (Brazil), Africa (Egypt and South-Africa) and South-East Asia (India), major fresh produce producing and EU trading partners.
In this work package, future climate scenarios will be developed, using the approach that was opted for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC approach will be tested in Veg-i-Trade for the complex issue of the complete fresh produce supply chain from farm to fork, including changes in trade, shifts in crop distribution and productivity and the emergence and incidences of microbial and chemical hazards. This will advance the understanding of impact of climate change regarding food safety and also permit further quantification of the vulnerabilities and associated risks. These results could make a major contribution to the next climate change assessment by IPCC, which is due in late 2013.